How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?     

《Advances in water resources》2014

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.  相似文献   

基于Rsync的中央气象台数据备份机制及优化设计          下载免费PDF全文

林玉成  赵瑞  罗兵 《高原山地气象研究》2014,34(1):81-85

中央气象台实时业务中的数据支持是完成全国灾害性天气监视预报的核心支撑,每天使用的实时数据更新量大于500G,其中大量数据需要不间断使用,因此实时数据备份及在异常情况下的及时恢复对中央气象台的实时业务保障显得十分重要。中央气象台在业务中使用的操作系统种类较多,文件存取使用方式及各类数据权限各不相同,通过研发与实践提出基于Rsync同步数据传输机制的数据备份方案,并在实际使用中逐步优化,实现了对不同种类的数据及操作系统实行不同的备份策略,在实际业务中起到了较好的效果。   相似文献   

土石坝地震永久变形参数反演方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

汪旭  康飞  李俊杰 《岩土力学》2014,35(1):279-286

提出了一种基于径向基网络的土石坝永久变形参数反演分析模型。该模型充分利用了径向基神经网络的非线性映射能力,只需要进行少量的样本设计,即可反演坝体永久变形参数,可以解决土石坝动力参数反演计算耗时长的问题。同时在对永久变形参数进行灵敏度分析的基础上,建立考虑参数灵敏度的网络训练目标函数,进一步提高了反演精度。将所建立的模型用于紫平铺面板堆石坝地震永久变形参数反演,采用三维有限元法进行静动力分析,并采用改进的沈珠江模型计算坝体地震永久变形。结果表明,反演参数计算的大坝地震永久变形和坝体实测永久变形数值接近,趋势一致,因而所建立的模型能够有效地反演坝体地震永久变形参数,为土石坝的动力参数反演提供了一种简便、有效的方法。  相似文献   

基坑工程平面竖向弹性地基梁法中土的水平抗力比例系数反分析研究     

徐中华  李靖  王卫东 《岩土力学》2014,35(Z2):398-404

提出了一种结合Ucode反分析软件和Abaqus有限元分析软件,并根据围护墙实测变形来反分析基坑工程平面竖向弹性地基梁法中土的水平抗力比例系数的方法。重点讨论了反分析的原理和实现流程,给出了反分析过程中迭代控制参数的确定方法及待估参数取值的确定方法。通过参数敏感分析可找到对围护结构变形影响较大的土层,针对起主导作用的土层m值进行反分析,既可提高迭代效率,又能保证反分析结果的准确性。实际工程反分析的结果表明,计算值与实测围护墙变形吻合得很好。在此基础上,根据多个测孔的反分析结果给出了各层土的水平抗力比例系数的建议取值。  相似文献   

孔隙砂岩多次化学注浆试验研究     

钱自卫  曹丽文  姜振泉  孙强 《岩土力学》2014,35(8):2226-2230

选取宁东地区典型的孔隙砂岩,采用不同颜色示踪的化学浆液进行4次注浆试验;揭示了浆液在孔隙中的扩散、充填规律及注浆次数与被注岩层渗透系数、孔隙率之间的关系。研究发现：每次化学注浆浆液的充填情况有明显的差别,首次注浆浆液在整个岩样均有较均匀的充填,后续的各次注浆浆液均呈现部分区域积聚充填的现象;随着注浆次数的增加岩样的渗透系数减小,孔隙充填率增加,渗透系数、孔隙充填率与注浆次数的关系可分别采用幂函数及对数函数拟合;4次注浆后岩样的渗透系数减小了97%,说明多次注浆起到了很好的减渗效果。依据试验成果,建立数值计算模型,预测了不同注浆次数、不同开挖条件下注浆孔及井筒的涌水量,并与井筒实际涌水量进行对比,发现两者数据较为吻合,说明依据试验结果建立数值模型进行涌水量预测是可行的。  相似文献   

Upper tertiary rocks from the continental shelf and slope off Southern Hawkes Bay     

K. B. Lewis 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):663-670

Sixteen rock samples were collected from the continental shelf and slope between Napier and Cape Turnagain, southern Hawkes Bay, most coming from offshore anticlinal ridges. Nine of the samples have a foraminiferal fauna of Upper Miocene and Pliocene age. The remainder cannot be dated, but most are probably of similar age. The foraminiferal. faunas are considered to have lived at depths ranging down to at least 1600 m deeper than the depth from which they were collected. Thus, the post‐depositional history of the samples includes tectonic uplift of similar magnitude since Upper Tertiary times. Because most of the samples arc very fine grained, unlike Recent sediments from ridges, it is suggested that the present regime of folding is largely post‐Pliocene in age.  相似文献   

Burrowing behaviour of the paddle crab Ovalipes catharus (White, 1843) (Brachyura: Portunidae)     

C. L. McLay  T. A. Osborne 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):125-130

The burrowing behaviour of Ovalipes catharus (White, 1843) is described and compared with that of some other burrowing crabs. O. catharus is a fast, back burrowing crab which makes temporary burrows in soft sand. The average time from initiation of burrowing to complete submergence was 6.5 s, there was no difference between males and females but burrowing time increased significantly with crab size. Similar morphological adaptations are required for burrowing and swimming: streamlined body shape, smooth lightly constructed exoskeleton, and flattened legs. O. catharus has a reversed respiratory current like O. guadulpensis but it differs in its burrowing behaviour. Compared to some other crabs, burrowing in O. catharus is rapid.  相似文献   

陕西省镇安县东沟金矿生产坑道系统涌水量预测方法对比     

郭昂青 《地质与资源》2012,21(6):563-565

根据矿区的水文地质条件和勘探坑道系统长期排水量动态观测资料和钻孔抽水试验资料,分别采用水文地质比拟预测法和Q-S曲线外推预测法,对矿区生产坑道系统涌水量进行预测对比.利用此方法预测的生产坑道系统涌水量,比较接近实际情况,预测的生产坑道系统最大涌水量可以作为生产坑道系统设计排水量的依据.对条件类似的矿山可采用水文地质比拟法预测坑道系统的涌水量.  相似文献   

特殊构造条件下煤炭综放开采顶板涌水机理及防治     

孟祥军  张新武 《煤田地质与勘探》2012,40(2):44-48

煤炭资源开采中采场顶板水水害是威胁工作面安全生产的灾害之一。以兖州矿区东滩煤矿综放开采14310工作面在回采过程中的涌水情况为例,在分析地质和水文地质条件基础上,从构造控水机理出发,分析了工作面特殊构造条件下顶板砂岩含水层的赋存规律和涌水规律,实施了14310工作面安全回采的探、放水工程、泄水巷工程和完善排水系统等相关水害综合防治方法,最终实现了工作面的安全回采。   相似文献   

水电工程坝址区构造应力场三维数值反演     

周洪福  聂德新 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2012,42(3):785-791

以水电工程实例为背景,在现场调查和地应力测量的基础上,采用三维数值技术对水电站坝址区小范围内构造应力场进行了反演分析,通过对三维模型施加不同量值、不同方向的边界载荷,对比分析应力拟合点处的计算主应力与实测主应力之间的差别,从而得到最合理的边界载荷的量值和方向,即为坝址区构造应力场的量值和方向。计算结果表明：水电站坝址区构造应力场σ₁方向为S50°－60°E,量值为6～7 MPa;σ₃方向为N50°－60°E,量值为3～4 MPa。反演计算得到的坝址区构造应力场方向与区域应力场方向吻合,主应力量值也在合理范围内。  相似文献